Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu. We decided to put our thinking caps on and use math to determine if this statement is true. What we discovered is that the novel coronavirus is much deadlier than what was initially thought: Here’s How:
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COVID-19 Is Way Worse Than The Flu According To Math: Here’s Why
Since the new coronavirus was first discovered in the United States in January, many people have compared it with a more well-known disease: the seasonal flu.
Is COVID-19 Just A Really Bad Flu?
No. First of all, COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus, while the seasonal flu is caused by influenza virus. These are two entirely different types of virus. When we say “novel” coronavirus we mean a coronavirus never before seen in humans. The 1918 Spanish flu is an example of another novel virus that caused a global pandemic.
Both COVID-19 and the flu are respiratory illnesses which is why people compare the two. Research so far shows COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu, which we’ll explain further in this article.
Put you’re thinking cap on and grab a calculator because we’ll be doing MATH today!
Is COVID-19 Deadlier Than The Seasonal Flu?
It’s a lot more deadly, concludes a new study by the University of Washington published May 7 in the journal Health Affairs. The study’s results also project a grim future if the U.S. doesn’t put up a strong fight against the spread of the virus.
“COVID-19 infection is deadlier than flu — we can put that debate to rest,” said study author Anirban Basu, professor of health economics and Stergachis Family Endowed Director of the CHOICE Institute at the UW School of Pharmacy.
During the 2018-2019 flu season there were 35,500,000 cases of the flu in the United States according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Flu season in the U.S. lasts from October 1 to April 4, about a 24 week period. During the most recent time period there were 34,200 flu deaths in the U.S.
In the roughly 10 weeks the novel coronavirus has been active in the U.S., there have been 1,573,742 confirmed cases and 94,965 confirmed COVID-19 deaths as of May 21, 2020. In Texas, during the same time period there were 52,268 cases reported and 1,440 fatalities according to Texas Department of Health and Human Services.
Cases & Deaths of COVID-19 vs Flu
| ILLNESS, LOCATION | CASES & DEATHS |
|---|---|
| Seasonal flu, United States | 35.5 million cases & 34,200 deaths |
| COVID-19, global | 5,101,400 cases & 328,000 deaths |
| COVID-19, United States | 1,573,724 cases & 94,965 deaths |
| COVID-19, Texas | 52,268 cases & 1,440 deaths |
How To Calculate Reported Case Fatality Risk
One way to compare the severity of flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is to calculate the reported case fatality risk (Reported CFR) and real case fatality risk (IFR -S) of each disease.
To find the reported case fatality risk we will need to divide the total deaths attributable to a disease by the total cases of the disease during a certain time period.
EQUATION FOR FLU: 34,200 / 35,500,000 = .2% REPORTED CFR in the United States for seasonal flu
EQUATION FOR COVID-19: 94,965 / 1,573,742 = 6.0% REPORTED CFR in United States for COVID-19
EQUATION FOR COVID-19 IN TX: 1,440 / 52,268 = 2.76% REPORTED CFR in Texas for COVID-19
Since COVID-19 is still an ongoing pandemic, the reported case fatality risk will fluctuate depending on several factors such as rate of spread, healthcare system, region, country, social distancing factors in place. The reported CFR gives us a good idea how deadly a virus is at a given point of time.
Reported Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 vs Flu
| ILLNESS / LOCATION | REPORTED CASE FATALITY RISK* |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 – global | 6.5% |
| COVID-19 – United States | 6.0% |
| COVID-19 Texas | 2.74% |
| Seasonal flu – United States | .2% |
*%s for COVID-19 will change as the pandemic progresses
How To Calculate Real Case Fatality Risk (Infection Fatality Rate – Symptomatic)
What the real case fatality risk, or infection fatality rate among symptomatic (IFR -S), attempts to do is account for all cases–whether reported or not–compared to all deaths to get a more accurate accounting of the true mortality risk of a disease.
To calculate the real case fatality risk (IFR -S) of a disease we will need to divide all deaths by all cases who fall sick.
The Real Case Fatality Risk (IFR-S) of the Diamond Princess cruise is estimated to be 1.2% according to this study.
We can also refer to published studies such as the new study by the University of Washington published May 7 in the journal Health Affairs. This study shows an infection mortality rate of 1.3% for COVID-19.
In comparison, the CDC reports the real case fatality risk (IFR -S) of seasonal flu is .11%.
Real Case Fatality Risk (IFR -S) of COVID-19 vs Flu
| ILLNESS / LOCATION | REAL CASE FATALITY RISK (IFR -S) |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 – U. of Washington Study | 1.3% |
| COVID-19 – Diamond Princess Cruise | 1.2% |
| Seasonal flu – United States | .1% |
What Is Herd Immunity And How Many Deaths Will That Result In?
We do not know yet whether or not humans will develop full immunity to COVID-19 because we are still in the very early stages of the pandemic, but it looks promising.
We now have enough SARS-Co-V2 genomic data from different states to make some broad conclusions about how the global pandemic has unfolded in the U.S.
80% of the population needs to contract a virus in order to develop full or partial herd immunity to it according to John Hopkins University.
This means that in order for the United States to reach herd immunity to COVID-19, 80% of it’s entire population of 329,000,000 will need to contract the disease. We can find 80% of 329 million by using the following math equation:
329,000,000 x .80 = 263,200,000
In order to reach herd immunity, 263,200,000 people in the United States will need to contract COVID-19.
| POPULATION OF UNITED STATES | HERD IMMUNITY {80% OF U.S. POPULATION} |
|---|---|
| 329,000,0000 | 263,200,000 |
What Is The Potential Death Toll Of COVID-19 To Reach Herd Immunity?
Now that we know what COVID-19’s reported case fatality risk, real case fatality risk (IFR -S), and how many people need to contract the virus in order to reach herd immunity, our next step is to determine the potential death toll of the novel coronavirus if we don’t follow social distancing guidelines, including wearing a face mask.
In fact, studies show that when at least 80% of a population wears a face mask that cases plummet. Wearing a face mask while practicing social distancing guidelines and good hygiene is crucial in order to mitigate the potential death toll of COVID-19 while a vaccine is being developed.
Here is the equation for the potential death toll if the United States is completely reopened and social distancing measures are discontinued:
Where x is the potential death toll, 1.3% is the IFR-S, and 263,200,000 is 80% of the U.S. population.
x = 1.3% * 263,200,000
x = 3,421,600
This means that if we completely return to normal, then the death toll of COVID-19 could be as high as 3,421,600 deaths in the United States if no action is taken to curb the spread of the virus.
Obviously, letting the novel coronavirus take its course until the U.S. reaches herd immunity is a very deadly option to take.
| INFECTION FATALITY RATE OF COVID-19 | POTENTIAL U.S. DEATH TOLL* OF COVID-19 TO REACH “HERD IMMUNITY” |
|---|---|
| 1.3% of 80% of the U.S. population | 3,421,600 |
What Is The Potential Death Toll Of COVID-19 vs Flu?
The COVID-19 death rate, the study by the University of Washington adds, means that if the same number of people in the U.S. are infected by the end of the year as were infected with the influenza virus — about 35 million — then 448,500 people will die of COVID-19.
However, the novel coronavirus is more infectious than the influenza virus having a higher basic replication number. COVID-19 is also much more deadly than flu according to the most recent real case mortality risk (IFR-S) data (1.3% IFR-S for COVID-19 vs .1% IFR-S for seasonal flu).
So, a conservative estimate of up to 20% of the U.S. population becoming infected by the end of 2020 — with the current trends in social distancing and health care supply continuing, while accounting for those infected who will recover asymptomatically — could result in the number of deaths climbing to between 312,000 and 855,400.
EQUATION: (% * U.S. Population) IFR = Potential U.S. Death Toll
(7.3% * 329,000,000) 1.3% = 312,000
Potential Death Toll in U.S. of COVID-19 vs Flu
| POPULATION OF U.S. INFECTED | POTENTIAL U.S. DEATH TOLL* BY END OF 2020 WITH 1.3% IFR-S |
|---|---|
| 7.3% – 24,000,000 | 312,000 |
| 10% – 34,500,000 (how many got sick with flu) | 448,500 |
| 20% – 65,800,000 | 855,400 |
| Seasonal flu (as a comparison) | 34,200 |
Should I Be Scared Of COVID-19?
COVID-19 is certainly an illness to respect and thankfully there are simple things you can do right now to help slow the spread of the novel coronavirus and avoid contracting it yourself:
- Wear a face mask when around others
- Stay at least 6 feet from other persons in social settings
- Practice good hygiene such as frequently washing hands
- Use hand sanitizer when washing hands is not possible
- Avoid touching your face
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick
- Stay home when you are sick
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces
Texas Governor Abbott added in his May 18 press conference, “But that said, one thing that we know for a fact with an infectious disease that does not yet have a cure, is that the more people do practice safe distancing, the more we will be able to reduce its spread. So that’s exactly why both today and every day I and everybody else with me, we strongly urge all Texans to continue safe distancing practices, to wear face masks, if at all possible, to sanitize your hands, do everything you possibly can to continue to slow the spread.”
COVID-19 Is Way Worse Than The Flu According To Math: Here’s Why
Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu. We decided to put our thinking caps on and use math to determine if this statement is true.
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